🎢 UK Business Trend Watch In 2025

📰 Industry News

Here's a roundup of this week's top headlines shaking up the UK business world.

• Next has said it will increase prices by 1% this year to help offset a £67m rise in wage costs driven by budget tax changes, which it expects will slow UK sales growth this year. (The Guardian)

• The owners of Shawbrook Group, the mid-sized British lender, are drawing up plans to kickstart London's moribund listings arena with a stock market flotation, valuing it at more than £2bn. (Sky News)

• B&Q is to acquire five Homebase stores in the UK, for £2.5 million. The sites are situated in Altrincham, Basingstoke, Biggleswade, Leamington Spa and Worcester. (The Retail Bulletin)

• Laura Ashley has been acquired by New York-based brand accelerator Marquee Brands, the owner of 17 brands including Ben Sherman, from global asset specialists Gordon Brothers. (Retail Gazette)

🎢 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: 2025 Business Trends to Watch

As we step into 2025, I’ve been thinking about what this year might have in store for businesses, big and small. From where I’m sitting, it looks like another rollercoaster for the UK economy. But hey, when hasn’t it been?

So here’s my take on what’s coming, the trends I think will define the year, and what it all means for businesses like yours and mine.

The Good: What’s Looking Bright in 2025

1. Solopreneurs Are Stepping Up
   Thinking about ditching the corporate grind for a one-person empire? Now might be your time. AI has gone from buzzword to practical tool, handling everything from admin to creative tasks, and 2025 looks like the year solopreneurs truly thrive.

   • Why now? In 2024, we saw people start to get their heads around AI, but in 2025, they’re really flexing it to build businesses solo. From side hustles to full-blown brands, it’s easier than ever to launch something on your own terms.

2. UK Tech (Still) Rules the Roost
   If there’s one area where the UK punches above its weight, it’s tech - particularly fintech. London remains Europe’s fintech capital, and the momentum from a whopping £24 billion in tech investment in 2024 is set to spill over into 2025.

   • Trend to watch: Embedded finance is creeping into everything, from apps to platforms that have nothing to do with banking. Imagine paying for your yoga class or coffee subscription straight through your meditation app. It’s coming.

3. Unglamorous Jobs Are In
   Remember when everyone wanted to be a crypto bro or dropshipping guru? That was so, what, 2018? As we started to see last year, 2025 will be a year where the real hustlers are solving practical problems and cashing in.

   Think mobile gutter cleaning or replacing car key fobs from a campervan - gritty, unfiltered, and surprisingly lucrative. Forget laptop lifestyles; it’s about meeting real-world demand and making real money. Turns out, the future of work isn’t in the metaverse. Who knew?

The Bad: Manageable, But No Picnic

1. Remote Work Takes a Backseat
   Thought you’d be Zooming in your PJs forever? Think again. Companies are rolling back remote roles, citing the usual buzzwords - collaboration, productivity, yadda yadda.

   • The numbers: Remote job postings on LinkedIn dropped to 11% by the end of 2024, compared to 21% in 2022.

   • The problem: Employees love remote work; employers, not so much. Cue workplace tension.

2. The Spending Squeeze
   Rising prices, higher taxes, and cautious consumers - 2025 is off to a rough start. People are tightening their belts, and that spells trouble for retail, hospitality, and other sectors relying on discretionary spending.

   • By the numbers: Consumer confidence hit a two-year low in December 2024. Shops and restaurants aren’t going to like what that does to footfall.

3. Pub Closures Continue
   It’s been a tough few years for Britain’s pubs, and 2025 isn’t looking much better. Rising costs and shrinking customer numbers mean many are calling time for good.

   • Bleak outlook: Predictions suggest thousands more pubs could close their doors by the end of the year. A sobering thought.

   The Ugly: Things You Can’t Control (But Have to Deal With Anyway)

   1. Tariff Turmoil
      Trump’s tariffs are back on the table, and their impact on UK-US trade is the wildcard no one really wanted in 2025.

      • Who’s sweating? Automotive and manufacturing sectors are bracing for disruption, and smaller exporters could find themselves in the crossfire.

   2. The High Street’s (Ongoing) Struggle
      Guess what? The high street isn’t making a miraculous recovery. More closures are expected this year, thanks to rising rents, increased business rates, dwindling demand, and, let’s face it, our growing love for next-day delivery.

      While Wilko’s fall in 2024 was a big wake-up call for retailers - 2025 could well see more names added to the list.

   3. Inflation Risks Aren’t Over
      Yes, inflation has cooled since its 2022 peak, but don’t get too comfortable. Supply chain issues and potential energy price hikes could send it creeping back up, keeping businesses and households on edge.

   What It All Means

   If 2025 had a mood board, it’d feature a rollercoaster, a coin toss, and maybe a stiff drink. Opportunities abound for those willing to adapt, especially in tech and solopreneurship. But the challenges - rising costs, consumer caution, and geopolitical chaos - are very real.

   The bottom line? Agility wins. Whether you’re scaling back, doubling down, or simply holding on for dear life, 2025 will reward those who stay sharp and think ahead. Now, let’s see who makes it to 2026 in one piece.

📦 The Office Return Backlash – UK Workers Push Back

January blues are here, and for UK workers, they’re been served with a side of office mandates. The post-pandemic flexibility that many now see as a workplace staple is under threat, as big names like Amazon and BT push for a return to office-based routines. But the UK workforce, at least for now, seems unconvinced.

Back to Desks

1. Amazon Goes All-In:

   • The eCommerce giant now demands staff in for five days a week - effectively cancelling remote work.

   • However, even Amazon is struggling, with some offices delaying the policy due to a lack of desks.

2. Hybrid Clampdowns:

   • BT’s “three together, two wherever” model tracks attendance through office swipe-ins.

   • Asda’s corporate staff face similar rules, with mandatory three-day attendance in Leeds and Leicester.

The Resistance in the UK

• ONS Data: More than a quarter of UK workers (28%) were on hybrid schedules in late 2024, citing flexibility as a key benefit.

• London Lags Behind: Brits, particularly Londoners, are slower to return to offices than workers in Paris or New York, with long commutes being a key factor.

• Strikes Loom: Civilian Met Police staff voted to strike over attendance demands, highlighting broader dissatisfaction with rigid policies.

Why the Push?

Bosses claim collaboration and creativity thrive in person, but hybrid advocates argue the data says otherwise:

• Wellbeing Boost: Remote workers save 56 minutes daily, improving productivity and morale.

• Job Trends: Hybrid job ads rose 31% in 2024, while remote-only roles fell 41%.

• More Control? Perhaps managers aren’t as good at managing their staff remotely as they claim to be. It’s easier to see staff working hard when they’re right under your nose.

So… What Now?

For now, employees still hold the cards, but many companies are looking to change that. UK employers forcing staff back into offices may face a talent exodus, while businesses scramble to rewrite contracts and rethink workplace norms. As the UK workforce reconsiders what matters most, one trend is clear: remote-only roles are likely to keep shrinking as we move further into 2025.

 📈 Price Hikes and Pressure: How the Budget is Squeezing UK Businesses

UK businesses are sounding the alarm on rising costs, with over half planning price hikes in the next three months. According to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), the "pressure cooker" of increasing taxes and wages has pushed confidence to its lowest point in two years. The Autumn Budget, which raised employers' National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and hiked the National Living Wage, has left many companies with tough choices: absorb costs, cut jobs, or pass the pain onto consumers.

Let’s unpack what this means for businesses, consumers, and the economy.

• Business Confidence Plummets: A BCC survey of nearly 5,000 firms reveals that 63% are worried about taxes, with confidence hitting post-mini-budget lows. Fewer than half (49%) expect sales to grow in the next year.

• National Insurance Increases: Employers' NICs will rise from 13.8% to 15% this April, adding significant costs for businesses.

• Living Wage Hike: The National Living Wage is set to jump from £11.44 to £12.21 an hour, squeezing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) further.

• Price Rises Loom: 55% of surveyed firms expect to raise prices in the next quarter, up from 39% previously. KPMG warns these hikes may keep inflation stubbornly high, despite predictions of economic growth in 2025.

Putting It Into Economic Context

• The UK economy saw zero growth between July and September 2024, followed by a contraction in October.

• Inflation, which dipped from record highs in 2022, rose again in late 2024, threatening purchasing power.

• KPMG predicts 1.7% economic growth in 2025, though this may fuel higher inflation if businesses continue to pass on costs.

What It Means for Businesses and Consumers

• Businesses: SMEs, which make up 91% of the surveyed firms, face an uphill battle. With rising costs and uncertain demand, the focus will likely shift to automation, efficiency, and cautious hiring. The larger question: can businesses adapt quickly enough to survive?

• Consumers: Brace for impact. Price hikes in goods and services will stretch already tight household budgets, further straining the cost-of-living crisis.

For the Labour government, the challenge remains striking a balance between growth and stability. While the Treasury promises long-term benefits from budget changes, the immediate pain could undermine the very confidence needed for recovery.

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